Key Takeaways

  • As wind and solar grow, mid-day prices tend to fall while evening prices can rise; expect wider time-of-use spreads in many U.S. regions.
  • Reliability improves with diverse resources, transmission, and storage; rooftop solar plus a battery can provide hours of backup for critical loads.
  • Rooftop solar pays back fastest where export credits match retail rates; community solar offers 5–15% bill discounts with no equipment.
  • Typical 2025 residential solar costs $2.40–$3.50/W before incentives; the 30% federal tax credit lowers out-of-pocket by nearly one-third.
  • If your export rate is low, a battery can shift solar to high-value evening hours, but payback hinges on your peak/off-peak price gap.

What You Need to Know

Growing wind and solar change both prices and reliability by shifting when power is cheap or scarce. In many markets with strong solar growth, mid-day supply surges push wholesale prices down, sometimes close to zero, while evening ramps can be expensive. Utilities respond with time-of-use (TOU) rates that make afternoon power cheaper and early-evening power pricier.

Reliability is about the whole system. The UK Government’s January 2026 statement to the extraordinary IAEA Board of Governors emphasized that secure, affordable electricity depends on resilient, diversified low‑carbon generation and strong safety standards. That aligns with U.S. grid needs as renewables scale: more transmission, flexible demand, storage, and firm resources to ride through extreme weather.

For households, this shift affects what saves you most:

  • Where retail net metering still pays roughly retail rates for exports, rooftop solar can offset most of your usage value.
  • Where export credits track wholesale prices, daytime exports are worth less; batteries or load shifting raise savings by targeting high-price hours.
  • Community solar subscriptions typically credit your bill at a set discount, avoiding equipment decisions while still tapping lower-cost solar generation.

According to current market figures, U.S. residential electricity averages around 15–18¢/kWh, but TOU spreads in high-renewables states can reach 10–30¢/kWh between off-peak and peak hours. That spread is the key lever for battery value.

How to Save Money

  1. Know your rate and the spread. Check if you are on TOU. If off-peak is 12¢/kWh and peak is 35¢/kWh, your spread is 23¢/kWh. The bigger the spread, the more valuable a battery or smart scheduling becomes.
  2. Estimate rooftop solar payback. According to current market figures, a 7 kW system costs about $16,800–$24,500 before incentives ($2.40–$3.50/W). The 30% federal tax credit drops net cost to ~$11,760–$17,150. With 7 kW producing ~7,700–10,500 kWh/year depending on location, and retail rates at 16¢/kWh, annual bill reduction could be ~$1,230–$1,680 under retail net metering. Payback: roughly 7–14 years.
  3. Adjust for low export credits. If your export rate is 5–8¢/kWh and you self-consume 50% of a 8,400 kWh/year system, savings are about 4,200×$0.16 + 4,200×$0.06 = ~$924/year. Payback extends to ~13–19 years unless you add load shifting or a battery.
  4. Size a battery by price gap and outages. A 10–13.5 kWh battery often costs $8,000–$13,000 installed after incentives. If you shift 10 kWh from off-peak to a 25¢/kWh higher peak for 300 days, you could save ~10×$0.25×300 = $750/year, plus outage value. Payback depends on your exact spread and cycling frequency.
  5. Consider community solar for simple savings. Many programs offer 5–15% off the energy supply portion. Example: 900 kWh/month with a 12¢/kWh supply charge is $108; a 10% community solar credit saves ~$10.80/month, about $130/year, with no maintenance.
  6. Use demand flexibility to ride the price curve. Run dishwashers, dryers, and EV charging during off-peak. Pre-cool homes or pre-heat water mid-day when solar is abundant. Shifting 300 kWh/month from peak to off-peak at a 20¢/kWh spread saves ~$60/month.
  7. Right-size your system. In areas with low export rates, aim for annual production near your self-consumption to maximize value. Smart thermostats and heat pump water heaters help absorb mid-day solar.

Bottom Line

As wind and solar grow in 2025–2026, expect cheaper mid-days, pricier evenings, and wider TOU spreads. Reliability remains strong when grids diversify and invest in storage and transmission, consistent with the UK Government’s 2026 emphasis on resilient, low‑carbon power systems. For households, the best savings path depends on your rate rules: rooftop solar excels under retail net metering, batteries shine when the peak/off-peak gap is wide or outages matter, and community solar delivers steady discounts without equipment.